Broadband is nothing less than the next wave in economic expansion. Advanced economies evolved from being production-driven to service-driven and are now poised to become knowledge-driven. Broadband may provide the network environment necessary to make that transition - constant connectivity and the ability to quickly process large quantities of raw data.
National Broadband Network The National Broadband Network (NBN) will replace the last mile of copper wire with optical fibre, allowing end-user access by 90% of Australian homes and businesses. The remaining will have broadband access through wireless and satellite options. It's estimated that the first open-access services will be available in July 2010. The NBN is essential to the future of broadband, recognising it as critical infrastructure with the potential to add billions to the economy and to create countless jobs.
Economic Benefits of Broadband Accenture issued the 2001 report, "Innovation Delivered - Broadband for Australia, An Economic Stimulus Package" in which it estimated broadband would deliver an increased $12 billion to $30 billion per annum. A more targeted study, The Yorke Peninsula Report, estimated broadband's state-wide benefits at $11.2 million per annum by 2010. Many studies posit a marked gain in productivity which leads to economic expansion.
Forecasting Broadband's Impact The Department of Communications, Information Technology and the Arts (DCITA) contracted a study, "Reliability of the Internet." This study forecasted the future of broadband through 2017 and asserted, "The prevalent trend in the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) sector is the convergence of systems and architectures towards Internet Protocol (IP) -based networks." Analysts foresee data, voice, and mobile network infrastructure convergence, dramatically expanding the role of the Internet in Australians' lives.
Forecast Through 2010 Through 2010 we may see widespread IP network convergence; businesses would likely move to virtual private networks over the public Internet. This period may also see widespread deployment of Next Generation Networks - these offer a sole platform for supporting multiple applications like data, voice, and multimedia. Other potential developments include widespread traffic prioritisation for quality-of-service-reliant applications, deployment of Internet-based health monitoring systems, and deployment of the NBN.
Forecast Through 2012 Through 2012 we may see IPv4 address space run out, leading to a gradual migration to IPv6. It's possible that CCTV and security monitoring will begin to be conducted over the Internet. IPTV might replace traditional broadcasts. We may see the addition of many new submarine cables and the expansion of existing cables. But it is not all good news: we may also experience a rise of cyber-attacks on Internet infrastructure.
Forecast Through 2017 Through 2017 it's possible we'll see the widespread use of RFID-enabled technologies, remote-control surgery systems, IP-based 4G mobile networks, the replacement of both fixed and mobile telephone lines with VoIP services, and widespread connection of networked appliances to the Internet. This ubiquitous computing and networking might well raise privacy and security concerns. It would likely lead to an increased reliance on the Internet for everyday activities. As a result, nations may overtly initiate cyber-warfare, which would cause defence and intelligence organisations to place greater priority on information warfare.
In 2006 the DCITA released its "Broadband Blueprint," stating: "As equipment capabilities grow, broadband will come to underpin the future connectivity requirements of the whole economy." The future of the Internet will be defined by constant connectivity. And that is where broadband is pivotal: connectivity is productivity.
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